Zero To Sixty

Okay, I’m incrementally getting better at taking calculated risks that return big investments. The trouble is that I’m still making mistakes. Some are little mistakes that have big consequences, while others are just bone-headed moves that have disastrous consequences. Today’s Absolute Poker freeroll had a good example of a small mistake and a good example of small risk with big payoff. First the small mistake.

I’ll cut to the chase: I faced these hold cards.

Formerly, I would muck this hand. But I had a big stack, and the blinds were small enough that I was playing a little more loose. Here’s the flop:

Having a big stack and the flexibility it brings is nice! Here I am flopping a set. Very nice.

My only concern was the flush draw. Without thinking I put in a half pot raise. The exact moment I put it in, I was cursing myself. A good player would see the potential of nabbing my stack with a flush and would call a small raise. The upside was just too juicy. The person behind me called instantly, and the turn fell:

I can’t believe it. I simply forgot everything I had been studying the past two days and it immediately comes back to haunt me! I made a big bet as a feeler (he could have been bluffing!), which was mistake number two, and he instacalled. The next card was another spade, so even if he didn’t hit the flush on the turn, he definitely had it on the river. Ugh.

Now let’s go back to a good hand.

Tenth hand of the tournament. Binds are 25/50. I face a preflop raise holding this:

It was a decent raise, but not extravagant. With two high cards and a flush draw, I decided to call. The flop came:

Pre-flop raiser raised double the pot, which was significant, but I had a flush draw and a backdoor straight possibility, so there was no way I was folding with the potential of pulling in his whole stack. Here’s what fell:

No flush, but now I had four more outs for a gutshot straight with the higher card. My opponent raised again, but with the all the outs I now faced, I was fairly certain I would nab his stack if I hit the 9 or the flush. I was thinking that my opponent had something strong, perhaps pocket kings, but not enough to confidently go all-in. I totally felt the risk was worth it. The river fell:

I had the nuts unless my opponent was holding KQ, which I considered highly unlikely considering I had a Q. My opponent went all-in, which was my goal all along, and I quickly called. He turned over:

I’m not sure why he went all-in with a straight on the board. My best guess is that he was trying to bluff me off the pot, making it look like he held a Q or even KQ. Unfortunately, he was facing someone… with the Q!

If you can’t really begin to learn until you realize just how much you don’t know then I’m hitting that point with poker. I’ve memorized opening hole cards. I understand the concepts of pot odds and outs. I’ve mastered my emotions so that I have the discipline and patience to pick my spots, but after reading through Matthew Hilger’s Texas Holdem: Odds And Probabilities I feel like I’m still a rank amateur.

Looking over the concept of stack sizes, assessing effective implied pot odds, and the winning odds of things like backdoor straights and belly buster straights just adds a whole level of complexity that I didn’t even consider. I mentioned this in my “donk” post earlier, but it bears repeating: In no-limit, it sometimes makes sense to make plays that you normally wouldn’t.

This is going to be a real challenge for me, as it adds quite a bit of mathematical complexity. Imagine figuring out the odds of hitting a two gapped straight draw from the flop to the river with one overcard, while also assessing the implied odds of a stack going all-in including what the turn bet will be. Not easy.

One change for me is that I’m much more likely to play low pairs, especially against significant raises, as the odds of hitting a set, while low, can pay off huge in no-limit tourneys. In fact, this happened to me tonight, and while the result wasn’t what I hoped, the actual play was pitch perfect to my mind:

It’s early in an Absolute Poker Freeroll. I’m in late position with a bunch of typical loose freeroll players. Blinds are only $25/50 and the key players have early stacks in the $1500 to $2500 range. My stack sits at $1420. I’m dealt:

A loose player raises to $250. In the past I would fold 55 immediately. But it’s clear that I could easily win this guy’s whole stack if I hit a set and take him to the river. So even though the odds of me hitting a set are low with the pot size, the effective odds with me nabbing his whole stack (something like 25 to 1) are too good to pass up. I figure I’ll hit the flop, miss the set and fold. A player behind me also calls, and three of us go to the flop. The flop comes:

And just like that I hit my set. My next worry is to make sure it will hold. At this point I have two thoughts: Are there any traps for me and how can I extricate two full stacks with this?

I was relatively unconcerned about the flop. There are no flush dangers yet, and the only straight possibility is 34. While 34 is a possible holding I found it highly unlikely. Of course, there is always the possibility that he or the other person were holding 66 and have me beat with a higher set, but I found it more likely that I was facing something from AA to even JT from the maniac.

The answer to my second question came quickly: Loose player in early position went all-in. I pushed, and late position player also went all-in. Loose player showed:

Loose player went all in with top pair and mediocre kicker. His only hope is to hit the hail mary straight with an 89, 34, or 48 dropping. Possible, but a pretty big long shot. I, of course, showed my triple 5s, but then late player showed his hand:

Another favorable holding for me! Even if he hits a set I beat him. His only hope is drawing a 3 on the turn or river, which is around 4.5 to 1 against. I have a 70% chance of winning both stacks, and it happened because I called with this scenario entirely in mind! Unfortunately for me, here is what the turn and river delivered:

And late caller hits his hail mary straight on the river! I have to admit that it didn’t really bring me down. If I’m in that position 7 out of 10 times I’m walking away with two big stacks.

I need to do a lot more analysis and study of how various holdings can play out to the river with the effective implied odds, but my rudimentary knowledge has already improved my game, if not my results… yet.