Zero To Sixty

Too Much Is… Too Much

I’ve cut down on my poker play, as I’ve been playing just way too much. I still play quite a bit, and I can see my play continue to improve, but I’m not playing six hours a day. I am going to focus on one freeroll every few days.

Progress

While I still haven’t finished in the money in a cash tournament, I can see evidence of my improved play. In the Carbon Poker Sit’n'go tourneys, I’ve made it to the third round in two of my last three attempts. I also am generally well-placed in tourneys heading into the first break. What knocks me out? Almost always a bad beat. For example, tonight I was kicked out of a freeroll on Absolute Poker when my pocket tens got beat by an under pair that matched with a second pair on the river.

Bummer

Earlier today I made it to the final two in the funstep 3 sit’n'go tourney on Carbon Poker. If I won,  I would have earned a full dollar. Hey, it’s something!

Anyway, I was up 5,000 chips to 1,000 and really was moving in for the kill, when I had to leave to do something with the family. So, I’ll take it as a moral victory, even though I had to forfeit my spot.

One of the things I need to find is a sense of balance. It’s pretty clear that as you play with erratic players and maniacs in freeroll tourneys that a looser approach pre-flop and a very disciplined approach post-flop can be incredibly lucrative. The trouble is that it is also fairly expensive. You go in on enough pots (and raised pots) in a row without that big payoff, and your chip stack is starting to look pretty thin. So a sense of balance is key.

That was one problem I had late last night on an Absolute Poker freeroll. I had a very long period of horrible cards and flops. I started out playing loose, but nothing hit so I had to tighten up considerable because my stack was dwindling. But nothing else came up over time either. Generally speaking, you can withstand these droughts because you will eventually hit a few big hands, but last night it went so long, and I had spent too many chips on loose plays early that I was in desperate shape.

As I said, I can’t really let this happen again. I’ve already identified my problem–calling too many big pre-flop raises. It’s one thing to call a 40 chip raise on a 20 chip big blind, but it’s another thing entirely to call a 120 chip raise on a 20 chip big blind. That’s just too much of an investment for the long odds involved, even for a potential full stack takedown.

One of the reasons I called these bets was that the sense of optimism involved in a big pre-flop raise generally means that they are willing to go all-in since they are confident in their hand. My plan is generally to call, hit the big flop, go all-in, and collect their stack. Again, hitting the flop is a long shot, but the effective implied pot odds of gaining a whole stack made it somewhat worth it. That is, if you have those chips to burn, which I don’t for any extended period of time in early rounds.

So I need to stop calling these big pre-flop raises unless I have a powerhouse hand. I still think calling pre-flop raises with mediocre hole cards that can improve to powerhouse hands is worth it… assuming your opponent is the type to go all-in at the drop of a hat and you can afford the chip outlay.

So balance is the word… not so many big raise calls and a tighter grip on “improvable hands.”

I can tell my play is significantly improving, but no matter how good you do, there is always the specter of the bad beat. Tonight it nipped me good. I was very much looking forward to finally building a bit of cash to move ahead, so it is quite depressing.

I was playing a $500 freeroll on Bodog, and I was doing quite well. I was in the top 250 with about 750 players left in the tourney. I was being patient and noticed how some players on the table were playing, which was pretty loose preflop and then fairly smart post-flop.

I was dealt pocket aces, and my only thought was how to best extract the maximum amount of chips. I was pretty sure that a pre-flop all-in would get no action and that a significant pre-flop raise would scare out quite a few limpers who would have mediocre hands. I knew it was a bit of a risk in terms of walking into a straight or a flush, but I felt that slow playing it was the best strategy for this group.

My best case scenario was that a king would fall, and a big raise by me would be met with an all-in by someone holding the a king. Well, a king hit the table with a couple of undercards. There was no chance of a straight or flush. My only concern was someone hitting trips, and the odds of that were very small. So I bet big out of the flop with a nice healthy pot due to all the limpers I had figured on.

And, as an added bonus, a player went all-in with me! He turned over a king and a two offsuit, and I can just imagine how his face fell when I turned over the pocket aces. Now, his only chance was hitting a king for trips or a two for two pair. That’s five cards out of 45. His odds of winning were a dismal 4 to 1 (20%). Winning this would put me in the top ten and I would be in VERY good position to end in the money.

The turn card fell, and it was that two I mentioned earlier. With one turn of a card, he hit a 4 to 1 shot and I was now behind. Now my only chance was matching up with one of the other cards or hitting an aced. That was eight cards, which ironically gave me roughly the same odds as my opponent had (5 to 1). I didn’t hit it, however, and I was out of the tournament.

All in all, a pretty lousy way to prove to yourself you’re getting better!

Okay, I’m incrementally getting better at taking calculated risks that return big investments. The trouble is that I’m still making mistakes. Some are little mistakes that have big consequences, while others are just bone-headed moves that have disastrous consequences. Today’s Absolute Poker freeroll had a good example of a small mistake and a good example of small risk with big payoff. First the small mistake.

I’ll cut to the chase: I faced these hold cards.

Formerly, I would muck this hand. But I had a big stack, and the blinds were small enough that I was playing a little more loose. Here’s the flop:

Having a big stack and the flexibility it brings is nice! Here I am flopping a set. Very nice.

My only concern was the flush draw. Without thinking I put in a half pot raise. The exact moment I put it in, I was cursing myself. A good player would see the potential of nabbing my stack with a flush and would call a small raise. The upside was just too juicy. The person behind me called instantly, and the turn fell:

I can’t believe it. I simply forgot everything I had been studying the past two days and it immediately comes back to haunt me! I made a big bet as a feeler (he could have been bluffing!), which was mistake number two, and he instacalled. The next card was another spade, so even if he didn’t hit the flush on the turn, he definitely had it on the river. Ugh.

Now let’s go back to a good hand.

Tenth hand of the tournament. Binds are 25/50. I face a preflop raise holding this:

It was a decent raise, but not extravagant. With two high cards and a flush draw, I decided to call. The flop came:

Pre-flop raiser raised double the pot, which was significant, but I had a flush draw and a backdoor straight possibility, so there was no way I was folding with the potential of pulling in his whole stack. Here’s what fell:

No flush, but now I had four more outs for a gutshot straight with the higher card. My opponent raised again, but with the all the outs I now faced, I was fairly certain I would nab his stack if I hit the 9 or the flush. I was thinking that my opponent had something strong, perhaps pocket kings, but not enough to confidently go all-in. I totally felt the risk was worth it. The river fell:

I had the nuts unless my opponent was holding KQ, which I considered highly unlikely considering I had a Q. My opponent went all-in, which was my goal all along, and I quickly called. He turned over:

I’m not sure why he went all-in with a straight on the board. My best guess is that he was trying to bluff me off the pot, making it look like he held a Q or even KQ. Unfortunately, he was facing someone… with the Q!

If you can’t really begin to learn until you realize just how much you don’t know then I’m hitting that point with poker. I’ve memorized opening hole cards. I understand the concepts of pot odds and outs. I’ve mastered my emotions so that I have the discipline and patience to pick my spots, but after reading through Matthew Hilger’s Texas Holdem: Odds And Probabilities I feel like I’m still a rank amateur.

Looking over the concept of stack sizes, assessing effective implied pot odds, and the winning odds of things like backdoor straights and belly buster straights just adds a whole level of complexity that I didn’t even consider. I mentioned this in my “donk” post earlier, but it bears repeating: In no-limit, it sometimes makes sense to make plays that you normally wouldn’t.

This is going to be a real challenge for me, as it adds quite a bit of mathematical complexity. Imagine figuring out the odds of hitting a two gapped straight draw from the flop to the river with one overcard, while also assessing the implied odds of a stack going all-in including what the turn bet will be. Not easy.

One change for me is that I’m much more likely to play low pairs, especially against significant raises, as the odds of hitting a set, while low, can pay off huge in no-limit tourneys. In fact, this happened to me tonight, and while the result wasn’t what I hoped, the actual play was pitch perfect to my mind:

It’s early in an Absolute Poker Freeroll. I’m in late position with a bunch of typical loose freeroll players. Blinds are only $25/50 and the key players have early stacks in the $1500 to $2500 range. My stack sits at $1420. I’m dealt:

A loose player raises to $250. In the past I would fold 55 immediately. But it’s clear that I could easily win this guy’s whole stack if I hit a set and take him to the river. So even though the odds of me hitting a set are low with the pot size, the effective odds with me nabbing his whole stack (something like 25 to 1) are too good to pass up. I figure I’ll hit the flop, miss the set and fold. A player behind me also calls, and three of us go to the flop. The flop comes:

And just like that I hit my set. My next worry is to make sure it will hold. At this point I have two thoughts: Are there any traps for me and how can I extricate two full stacks with this?

I was relatively unconcerned about the flop. There are no flush dangers yet, and the only straight possibility is 34. While 34 is a possible holding I found it highly unlikely. Of course, there is always the possibility that he or the other person were holding 66 and have me beat with a higher set, but I found it more likely that I was facing something from AA to even JT from the maniac.

The answer to my second question came quickly: Loose player in early position went all-in. I pushed, and late position player also went all-in. Loose player showed:

Loose player went all in with top pair and mediocre kicker. His only hope is to hit the hail mary straight with an 89, 34, or 48 dropping. Possible, but a pretty big long shot. I, of course, showed my triple 5s, but then late player showed his hand:

Another favorable holding for me! Even if he hits a set I beat him. His only hope is drawing a 3 on the turn or river, which is around 4.5 to 1 against. I have a 70% chance of winning both stacks, and it happened because I called with this scenario entirely in mind! Unfortunately for me, here is what the turn and river delivered:

And late caller hits his hail mary straight on the river! I have to admit that it didn’t really bring me down. If I’m in that position 7 out of 10 times I’m walking away with two big stacks.

I need to do a lot more analysis and study of how various holdings can play out to the river with the effective implied odds, but my rudimentary knowledge has already improved my game, if not my results… yet.

I was doing very well in the Absolute Poker $50 nightly Freeroll when I got kicked going all in with AA. It was me against two other players and the one had 85 (can you believe it?) and the other had K5. Guess what flopped? Yes, TWO fives! My AA not only didn’t hold up, they came in last in a three way pot!

It’s quite disheartening, let me tell you. I’m really feeling that I’m dong better now, too. So when I get into the top 200 heading into the home stretch and then lose to a total long shot. Ugh. It is just so frustrating.

Oh well, at least it wasn’t real money!

Hit the flop with multiple players holding QQ in my hand and in last position. With all three flop cards below 10, the player under the gun went all in. Seeing nothing other than trips and AA or KK as beating me, I figured that I had a good chance on the all-in. Trouble was that I had no bead on the player who went all-in, so I had to basically play the odds.

He turned over KK. Rats!

So I got kicked out with a good stack and in a solid top 200 position (400 people left in the tournament) in a $1K freeroll. Oh well, next time!

One of the key elements of poker is knowing your “outs,” which is to say how many cards can improve your hand. This is generally looked at in terms of calculating your own odds to win, but I hit a situation today where knowing the outs on the board would have prevented a mistake by myself.

The situation was that there was a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw in the flop. I had top pair and top kicker. Normally, this is enough to win, and with a big enough bet, this would be enough to weed out most draws. The problem is that with the flush/straight draw possibilities, even a big bet may not scare some people off. That was the case tonight.

I knew that the outs would create very positive pot odds unless I did something drastic, so I went all-in. The trouble is that there were just so many outs available that two other people went all-in with me. At that moment I knew I was lost. This was an important lesson–with so many outs on the board, risking an all-in is very unwise.

I generally use a reference of starting hands so that I don’t get too loose on my opening bets. I misplaced it and found myself just playing “off the cuff.” The result has been some pretty poor poker by me. I got very undisciplined and lazy. I was playing hands I never should be playing like Q8 and I was betting aggressively with middle pair in poor position.

The good news is that I quickly realized this was an issue and got back on track. I did break one of my rules and immediately got burned for it. I generally will never go all-in with unpaired cards unless one is an ace. A very loose player went all-in, and I had KQ. His range of hands could have gone everywhere from AA to T9. I put him on a mediocre hand and went all-in. He had A9, but it was the A that killed me… he won with A high, and my rule proved to be there for a reason: Ace high on all ins is a fairly common winning hand when pairs aren’t in the pockets.

This has happened to me twice in two days now, so I need to take a break and do some research on what I’m doing wrong. What is the issue? Playing pocket pairs strong, only to get beat by three-of-a-kind draws. The first time it happened to me with QQ in my hand and no overcards on the flop. The second time was tonight. I was in very good shape heading into the third hour of the Bodog $500 Free roll when this happened:

I’m in middle position with a stack of $9,420, well in the top half of the field and higher than the tournament average. Binds are $150/$300. I’m dealt:

Very nice. The binds are placed and the player under the gun raises $800. I peg him for a good hand. Probably AQs or AKs, maybe even QQ or JJ. I re-raise to $1,760, figuring that I still have the best hand. While it is possible he has AA, the odds are remote that he does. He calls and the flop hits:

This is where I believe my thinking went awry. I looked at the flop, and the first thing I thought was, “No ace! I have the top pair!” After having been burnt by flopped three-of-a-kind the previous day, I took a look and noted that there was very little chance that anyone would raise 22 or 33 or call a re-raise on 22 or 33. That left the jack. If he had JJ in his hand, I was toast. I clearly remember thinking, “What are the odds that he has JJ and flopped a J? Minimal.” His lead out bet certainly made a statement: $1,940.

At this point, I should have folded. Why didn’t I fold? I was thinking that he had QQ or even TT. Clearly this was a stupid assumption when you consider his play. Being as aggressive as he was, he either had AA or JJ in his hand. Nothing else makes sense. Unfortunately for me, both of those pocket cards are winners. Being in denial, I raised him to $4,380. He went all-in, and I (for the second time in a row!) didn’t appreciate the poewr of his hand and called. With all-in called, he showed:

Three-of-a-kind jacks, and he has me beat cold. The next two cards were:

And with a couple hundred in chips left, I was basically out of the tournament.

I still am not entirely sure why I have such trouble playing big pocket pairs that lose. Earlier in this tournament I folded QQ against a strong bet with an ace on the table, but that was pretty clear: An overcard on the table is a fold waiting to happen. The difference here is that I simply couldn’t appreciate the reality that sometimes the momentous odds really do go against you.

I need to learn not to overvalue my hand, clearly. Whare are the odds of flopping a J with JJ in your hand? A ridiculous 23 to 1. But it happens, and when it does there are plenty of indicators. Re-raising a huge raise after the flop is a pretty clear indicator. These “betting indicators” are harder to appreciate because the opponent very well may be bluffing, but sometimes it’s just obvious. It was obvious here, and I just ignored the signs.

So in the future I need to stop overvaluing my hand. I’m doing that well gainst overcards. Now I need to take that lesson and apply it to strong betting indicators. It will make me a much stronger player and save my $9,000 top shelf stack from dwindling to near nothing in one hand.