Zero To Sixty

Too Much Is… Too Much

I’ve cut down on my poker play, as I’ve been playing just way too much. I still play quite a bit, and I can see my play continue to improve, but I’m not playing six hours a day. I am going to focus on one freeroll every few days.

Progress

While I still haven’t finished in the money in a cash tournament, I can see evidence of my improved play. In the Carbon Poker Sit’n'go tourneys, I’ve made it to the third round in two of my last three attempts. I also am generally well-placed in tourneys heading into the first break. What knocks me out? Almost always a bad beat. For example, tonight I was kicked out of a freeroll on Absolute Poker when my pocket tens got beat by an under pair that matched with a second pair on the river.

Bummer

Earlier today I made it to the final two in the funstep 3 sit’n'go tourney on Carbon Poker. If I won,  I would have earned a full dollar. Hey, it’s something!

Anyway, I was up 5,000 chips to 1,000 and really was moving in for the kill, when I had to leave to do something with the family. So, I’ll take it as a moral victory, even though I had to forfeit my spot.

Well, it was so late (around 4am) that I just had to finish the tournament sooner rather than later, so sitting with in about third place (out of 5) and a good stack, I saw myself with A8 offsuit. Normally, I would muck the hand, but I was just looking for an excuse to finish, so I went all-in. I hit the 8, but lost to an overpair, and my tournament was over. I finished in fifth place.

Frankly, I feel confident that I could have fought for first place, but it was not to be with the hour of the night. As it is, my goal was to finish in the top 8, and I achieved that, so I feel really good.

My performances continue to improve. My freeroll finishes are now consistently in the top 125, and with a bit more focus and patience I can see myself consistently finishing in the money.

I played really well and now find myself in third place out of 17 players remaining in the Absolute Poker 5K freeroll. It’s the third break, and I am guaranteed a payoff in AP points since the prize structure goes to 18.

My goal is to finish top 8, but I have shot at the top, being only a few chips behind the leader.

I was going to write a post about how not much is happening other than my improving play. I’m consistently finishing in the 75 to 125 range in freeroll tournaments while a week ago I would have been happy to hit 300. So here comes tonight, and at the second break of the Absolute Poker 5K points freeroll I’m sitting in fourth place with over 100K in chips.

Only 82 people are left and the tourney pays out points to the top 16. It’s getting late, so I’m not sure I can stay up to close out the tournament, but I’m going to try! I’d love to finish in the “money” and grab some points I could use on higher stakes tournaments.

Okay, I’m incrementally getting better at taking calculated risks that return big investments. The trouble is that I’m still making mistakes. Some are little mistakes that have big consequences, while others are just bone-headed moves that have disastrous consequences. Today’s Absolute Poker freeroll had a good example of a small mistake and a good example of small risk with big payoff. First the small mistake.

I’ll cut to the chase: I faced these hold cards.

Formerly, I would muck this hand. But I had a big stack, and the blinds were small enough that I was playing a little more loose. Here’s the flop:

Having a big stack and the flexibility it brings is nice! Here I am flopping a set. Very nice.

My only concern was the flush draw. Without thinking I put in a half pot raise. The exact moment I put it in, I was cursing myself. A good player would see the potential of nabbing my stack with a flush and would call a small raise. The upside was just too juicy. The person behind me called instantly, and the turn fell:

I can’t believe it. I simply forgot everything I had been studying the past two days and it immediately comes back to haunt me! I made a big bet as a feeler (he could have been bluffing!), which was mistake number two, and he instacalled. The next card was another spade, so even if he didn’t hit the flush on the turn, he definitely had it on the river. Ugh.

Now let’s go back to a good hand.

Tenth hand of the tournament. Binds are 25/50. I face a preflop raise holding this:

It was a decent raise, but not extravagant. With two high cards and a flush draw, I decided to call. The flop came:

Pre-flop raiser raised double the pot, which was significant, but I had a flush draw and a backdoor straight possibility, so there was no way I was folding with the potential of pulling in his whole stack. Here’s what fell:

No flush, but now I had four more outs for a gutshot straight with the higher card. My opponent raised again, but with the all the outs I now faced, I was fairly certain I would nab his stack if I hit the 9 or the flush. I was thinking that my opponent had something strong, perhaps pocket kings, but not enough to confidently go all-in. I totally felt the risk was worth it. The river fell:

I had the nuts unless my opponent was holding KQ, which I considered highly unlikely considering I had a Q. My opponent went all-in, which was my goal all along, and I quickly called. He turned over:

I’m not sure why he went all-in with a straight on the board. My best guess is that he was trying to bluff me off the pot, making it look like he held a Q or even KQ. Unfortunately, he was facing someone… with the Q!

If you can’t really begin to learn until you realize just how much you don’t know then I’m hitting that point with poker. I’ve memorized opening hole cards. I understand the concepts of pot odds and outs. I’ve mastered my emotions so that I have the discipline and patience to pick my spots, but after reading through Matthew Hilger’s Texas Holdem: Odds And Probabilities I feel like I’m still a rank amateur.

Looking over the concept of stack sizes, assessing effective implied pot odds, and the winning odds of things like backdoor straights and belly buster straights just adds a whole level of complexity that I didn’t even consider. I mentioned this in my “donk” post earlier, but it bears repeating: In no-limit, it sometimes makes sense to make plays that you normally wouldn’t.

This is going to be a real challenge for me, as it adds quite a bit of mathematical complexity. Imagine figuring out the odds of hitting a two gapped straight draw from the flop to the river with one overcard, while also assessing the implied odds of a stack going all-in including what the turn bet will be. Not easy.

One change for me is that I’m much more likely to play low pairs, especially against significant raises, as the odds of hitting a set, while low, can pay off huge in no-limit tourneys. In fact, this happened to me tonight, and while the result wasn’t what I hoped, the actual play was pitch perfect to my mind:

It’s early in an Absolute Poker Freeroll. I’m in late position with a bunch of typical loose freeroll players. Blinds are only $25/50 and the key players have early stacks in the $1500 to $2500 range. My stack sits at $1420. I’m dealt:

A loose player raises to $250. In the past I would fold 55 immediately. But it’s clear that I could easily win this guy’s whole stack if I hit a set and take him to the river. So even though the odds of me hitting a set are low with the pot size, the effective odds with me nabbing his whole stack (something like 25 to 1) are too good to pass up. I figure I’ll hit the flop, miss the set and fold. A player behind me also calls, and three of us go to the flop. The flop comes:

And just like that I hit my set. My next worry is to make sure it will hold. At this point I have two thoughts: Are there any traps for me and how can I extricate two full stacks with this?

I was relatively unconcerned about the flop. There are no flush dangers yet, and the only straight possibility is 34. While 34 is a possible holding I found it highly unlikely. Of course, there is always the possibility that he or the other person were holding 66 and have me beat with a higher set, but I found it more likely that I was facing something from AA to even JT from the maniac.

The answer to my second question came quickly: Loose player in early position went all-in. I pushed, and late position player also went all-in. Loose player showed:

Loose player went all in with top pair and mediocre kicker. His only hope is to hit the hail mary straight with an 89, 34, or 48 dropping. Possible, but a pretty big long shot. I, of course, showed my triple 5s, but then late player showed his hand:

Another favorable holding for me! Even if he hits a set I beat him. His only hope is drawing a 3 on the turn or river, which is around 4.5 to 1 against. I have a 70% chance of winning both stacks, and it happened because I called with this scenario entirely in mind! Unfortunately for me, here is what the turn and river delivered:

And late caller hits his hail mary straight on the river! I have to admit that it didn’t really bring me down. If I’m in that position 7 out of 10 times I’m walking away with two big stacks.

I need to do a lot more analysis and study of how various holdings can play out to the river with the effective implied odds, but my rudimentary knowledge has already improved my game, if not my results… yet.

I was doing very well in the Absolute Poker $50 nightly Freeroll when I got kicked going all in with AA. It was me against two other players and the one had 85 (can you believe it?) and the other had K5. Guess what flopped? Yes, TWO fives! My AA not only didn’t hold up, they came in last in a three way pot!

It’s quite disheartening, let me tell you. I’m really feeling that I’m dong better now, too. So when I get into the top 200 heading into the home stretch and then lose to a total long shot. Ugh. It is just so frustrating.

Oh well, at least it wasn’t real money!

Okay, a lot has happened over the past day and a half, so let me walk through it. On Absolute Poker, I won some money in a free roll, worked it up to enough money to join a tournament, and came in seventh place in that tournament, which earned me a total profit of $13.16. When you add this to the $0.25 at Full Tilt Poker this means that I’m $13.41 toward my goal of $60,000.00.

Part of that $13.16 on Absolute Poker includes $1 or so that I won on the cash tables playing .02/.04 limit poker. After the intensity of tournaments over the past couple weeks, low limit cash tables were like shooting fish in a barrel. In about an hour I earned $1 with penny stakes. Hey, I’ll take it. I have a long way to go!

The bulk of my winnings came from the Absolute Poker tournament, which had a $1.10 buy-in. I got kicked out by the eventual winner on a hand where I played pretty well but got busted on a flat out better hand.

Anyway, I’m debating on sticking to cash tables for the next few days to see how I do. My feeling is that trolling the cash tables is a much more effective way of making money via Internet poker than playing in tournaments. We’ll see.

So I played in the Absolute Poker Friday Night $50 Freeroll, along with nearly 5,000 other people. I guess the good news is that I finished in 120th place, which isn’t too bad considering the competition, but I was once again out-of-the-money.  I made relatively few mistakes, and when I lost a big pot due to a small mistake or a bad beat, I didn’t lose my self-control.

All in all, I feel good moving forward, even as I still sit with zero money.

At second break I’m at 132 out of 138. I guess I could consider this “good,” as the tournament started with nearly 5,000 players, but I’m not happy. I want to always be at least in the top half as the tournament runs.