Okay, I’m incrementally getting better at taking calculated risks that return big investments. The trouble is that I’m still making mistakes. Some are little mistakes that have big consequences, while others are just bone-headed moves that have disastrous consequences. Today’s Absolute Poker freeroll had a good example of a small mistake and a good example of small risk with big payoff. First the small mistake.
I’ll cut to the chase: I faced these hold cards.
Formerly, I would muck this hand. But I had a big stack, and the blinds were small enough that I was playing a little more loose. Here’s the flop:
Having a big stack and the flexibility it brings is nice! Here I am flopping a set. Very nice.
My only concern was the flush draw. Without thinking I put in a half pot raise. The exact moment I put it in, I was cursing myself. A good player would see the potential of nabbing my stack with a flush and would call a small raise. The upside was just too juicy. The person behind me called instantly, and the turn fell:
I can’t believe it. I simply forgot everything I had been studying the past two days and it immediately comes back to haunt me! I made a big bet as a feeler (he could have been bluffing!), which was mistake number two, and he instacalled. The next card was another spade, so even if he didn’t hit the flush on the turn, he definitely had it on the river. Ugh.
Now let’s go back to a good hand.
Tenth hand of the tournament. Binds are 25/50. I face a preflop raise holding this:
It was a decent raise, but not extravagant. With two high cards and a flush draw, I decided to call. The flop came:
Pre-flop raiser raised double the pot, which was significant, but I had a flush draw and a backdoor straight possibility, so there was no way I was folding with the potential of pulling in his whole stack. Here’s what fell:
No flush, but now I had four more outs for a gutshot straight with the higher card. My opponent raised again, but with the all the outs I now faced, I was fairly certain I would nab his stack if I hit the 9 or the flush. I was thinking that my opponent had something strong, perhaps pocket kings, but not enough to confidently go all-in. I totally felt the risk was worth it. The river fell:
I had the nuts unless my opponent was holding KQ, which I considered highly unlikely considering I had a Q. My opponent went all-in, which was my goal all along, and I quickly called. He turned over:
I’m not sure why he went all-in with a straight on the board. My best guess is that he was trying to bluff me off the pot, making it look like he held a Q or even KQ. Unfortunately, he was facing someone… with the Q!
Tags: Absolute Poker, all-in, effective implied odds, freerolls