Zero To Sixty

This has happened to me twice in two days now, so I need to take a break and do some research on what I’m doing wrong. What is the issue? Playing pocket pairs strong, only to get beat by three-of-a-kind draws. The first time it happened to me with QQ in my hand and no overcards on the flop. The second time was tonight. I was in very good shape heading into the third hour of the Bodog $500 Free roll when this happened:

I’m in middle position with a stack of $9,420, well in the top half of the field and higher than the tournament average. Binds are $150/$300. I’m dealt:

Very nice. The binds are placed and the player under the gun raises $800. I peg him for a good hand. Probably AQs or AKs, maybe even QQ or JJ. I re-raise to $1,760, figuring that I still have the best hand. While it is possible he has AA, the odds are remote that he does. He calls and the flop hits:

This is where I believe my thinking went awry. I looked at the flop, and the first thing I thought was, “No ace! I have the top pair!” After having been burnt by flopped three-of-a-kind the previous day, I took a look and noted that there was very little chance that anyone would raise 22 or 33 or call a re-raise on 22 or 33. That left the jack. If he had JJ in his hand, I was toast. I clearly remember thinking, “What are the odds that he has JJ and flopped a J? Minimal.” His lead out bet certainly made a statement: $1,940.

At this point, I should have folded. Why didn’t I fold? I was thinking that he had QQ or even TT. Clearly this was a stupid assumption when you consider his play. Being as aggressive as he was, he either had AA or JJ in his hand. Nothing else makes sense. Unfortunately for me, both of those pocket cards are winners. Being in denial, I raised him to $4,380. He went all-in, and I (for the second time in a row!) didn’t appreciate the poewr of his hand and called. With all-in called, he showed:

Three-of-a-kind jacks, and he has me beat cold. The next two cards were:

And with a couple hundred in chips left, I was basically out of the tournament.

I still am not entirely sure why I have such trouble playing big pocket pairs that lose. Earlier in this tournament I folded QQ against a strong bet with an ace on the table, but that was pretty clear: An overcard on the table is a fold waiting to happen. The difference here is that I simply couldn’t appreciate the reality that sometimes the momentous odds really do go against you.

I need to learn not to overvalue my hand, clearly. Whare are the odds of flopping a J with JJ in your hand? A ridiculous 23 to 1. But it happens, and when it does there are plenty of indicators. Re-raising a huge raise after the flop is a pretty clear indicator. These “betting indicators” are harder to appreciate because the opponent very well may be bluffing, but sometimes it’s just obvious. It was obvious here, and I just ignored the signs.

So in the future I need to stop overvaluing my hand. I’m doing that well gainst overcards. Now I need to take that lesson and apply it to strong betting indicators. It will make me a much stronger player and save my $9,000 top shelf stack from dwindling to near nothing in one hand.

Tags: all-in, betting indicators, Bodog, freeroll, JJ, KK

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