Zero To Sixty

As you can see from my poker blog, I had attempted a fun experiment: To see if I could start with zero money and make it to $60,000 from just online poker. I believe my overall process was spot on and doable: Start by winning money in a sit’n'go or freeroll tournament and then use those winnings to play cash tables. There were two problems with this:

1) Tournaments are susceptible to luck.

• It’s not an accident that Emmanuel Lasker and Garry Kasparov were world chess champions for years: They were head-and-shoulders above every player around them. There is very little luck involved in competitive chess at a very high level.
• You don’t see this in poker. Even the great players don’t dominate like you see in other individual sports. Winning the World Series of Poker three years in a row? Nearly impossible, even for incredibly talented players.

2) Cash tables are incredibly boring

• Right now, I bet I could win $100 to $200 a day just playing the low stakes tables in online poker rooms. But there is a big problem: I find cash games incredibly boring. All it really takes is patience and discipline. So you sit there minute after minute, hour after hour, just mindlessly turning cards over, and the few moments of excitement are anti-climactic–you either get hit with a bad beat or you win a big pot off of the really poor players at the table.

As a result, I just couldn’t continue with this experiment. It was alternately frustrating and boring. Winning a freeroll takes a tremendous amount of luck, and my whole idea was to minimize luck with knowledge. Unfortunately, in chess tournaments, it is extremely hard to minimize luck.

This means that I’m going to drastically curtail my poker play, making my poker site somewhat irrelevant. I’ll keep it up for the occasional poker post and update, but my attention now is going to be aimed at something more interesting: Writing.

I’ve decided to work on my three current projects, pretty much simultaneously: My mystery novel, my science fiction novel, and my Twitter novel. Over the next few weeks I’ll set up a way to track these via this or other websites.

As I mention numerous times on this blog, this is a standard situation for me–my life is a series of tangents that I follow and then abandon (e.g. poker) when I get bored. I then follow the current of my life in some new direction. And that new direction now is writing.

Oh my goodness, I haven’t updated this blog in ages, and there is quite a bit of news. Let’s get caught up, shall we? Okay, on Carbon Poker I got in the money on a freeroll. That gave me a bankroll of a little more than $1.00. I took that bankroll and then started playing cash tables (as I said in my plan). Starting with 2/4 penny cash tables, I actually built my bankroll up to around $50.00. Then things went bad.

There were some ups and downs, but three single hands took me from $50 to less than $2! The first was an ace high flush where I went all-in and then lost to a full house. That took me to around $30. Then I went all-in again with an ace high flush and, you guessed it, lost again to a full house. I’m not sure how often that happens, but it just devasted my bankroll.

I was down to about $11 and then went all-in against a loose-aggressive player with 99 preflop. This came shortly after I had lost in the secon full house, and clearly I was making poor decisions and was on tilt. I lost to an overpair draw and that took me all the way down to pretty much exactly where I started–less than 2 dollars.

I had no choice but to start at the 2/4 penny level again, and it didn’t take me long to get to $5. I then switched to nickle/dime blinds cash games, and in three days I find myself back up to $20. Actually, I’m finding the nickle/dime cash games quite lucrative. I don’t win the big $20 pots, but I also lose extremely rarely and can easily make $5-$10/night.

The downside, of course, is that I will never make it to $60K at that pace. So I have a new plan. The first part is that I will only commit one third of my bankroll max at each cash table session. The second is that I will accelerate up the limits much slower. As you can imagine, I previously quickly went up to the 50 cent/1 dollar blinds level and that’s what wiped me out quickly. I believe by taking it more slowly, I’ll be better prepared for the chip and knowledge requirements of a higher level.

The other downside is that I’m not earning enough comp points on Carbon Poker to qualify for high dollar value freerolls. As a player, you receive comp points for playing cash games, and the higher the level, the more comp points you earn. If you earn 2,000 comp points over three days, you qualify for free entry into $1k and $2K tourneys. Part of my plan was to play plenty of $1K and $2K freerolls, but that plan will have to wait until I can handle the cash games that generate the comp points to let me qualify for those.

All in all, I’m in a good spot: Not broke and still learning!

Too Much Is… Too Much

I’ve cut down on my poker play, as I’ve been playing just way too much. I still play quite a bit, and I can see my play continue to improve, but I’m not playing six hours a day. I am going to focus on one freeroll every few days.

Progress

While I still haven’t finished in the money in a cash tournament, I can see evidence of my improved play. In the Carbon Poker Sit’n'go tourneys, I’ve made it to the third round in two of my last three attempts. I also am generally well-placed in tourneys heading into the first break. What knocks me out? Almost always a bad beat. For example, tonight I was kicked out of a freeroll on Absolute Poker when my pocket tens got beat by an under pair that matched with a second pair on the river.

Bummer

Earlier today I made it to the final two in the funstep 3 sit’n'go tourney on Carbon Poker. If I won,  I would have earned a full dollar. Hey, it’s something!

Anyway, I was up 5,000 chips to 1,000 and really was moving in for the kill, when I had to leave to do something with the family. So, I’ll take it as a moral victory, even though I had to forfeit my spot.

One of the things I need to find is a sense of balance. It’s pretty clear that as you play with erratic players and maniacs in freeroll tourneys that a looser approach pre-flop and a very disciplined approach post-flop can be incredibly lucrative. The trouble is that it is also fairly expensive. You go in on enough pots (and raised pots) in a row without that big payoff, and your chip stack is starting to look pretty thin. So a sense of balance is key.

That was one problem I had late last night on an Absolute Poker freeroll. I had a very long period of horrible cards and flops. I started out playing loose, but nothing hit so I had to tighten up considerable because my stack was dwindling. But nothing else came up over time either. Generally speaking, you can withstand these droughts because you will eventually hit a few big hands, but last night it went so long, and I had spent too many chips on loose plays early that I was in desperate shape.

As I said, I can’t really let this happen again. I’ve already identified my problem–calling too many big pre-flop raises. It’s one thing to call a 40 chip raise on a 20 chip big blind, but it’s another thing entirely to call a 120 chip raise on a 20 chip big blind. That’s just too much of an investment for the long odds involved, even for a potential full stack takedown.

One of the reasons I called these bets was that the sense of optimism involved in a big pre-flop raise generally means that they are willing to go all-in since they are confident in their hand. My plan is generally to call, hit the big flop, go all-in, and collect their stack. Again, hitting the flop is a long shot, but the effective implied pot odds of gaining a whole stack made it somewhat worth it. That is, if you have those chips to burn, which I don’t for any extended period of time in early rounds.

So I need to stop calling these big pre-flop raises unless I have a powerhouse hand. I still think calling pre-flop raises with mediocre hole cards that can improve to powerhouse hands is worth it… assuming your opponent is the type to go all-in at the drop of a hat and you can afford the chip outlay.

So balance is the word… not so many big raise calls and a tighter grip on “improvable hands.”

I can tell my play is significantly improving, but no matter how good you do, there is always the specter of the bad beat. Tonight it nipped me good. I was very much looking forward to finally building a bit of cash to move ahead, so it is quite depressing.

I was playing a $500 freeroll on Bodog, and I was doing quite well. I was in the top 250 with about 750 players left in the tourney. I was being patient and noticed how some players on the table were playing, which was pretty loose preflop and then fairly smart post-flop.

I was dealt pocket aces, and my only thought was how to best extract the maximum amount of chips. I was pretty sure that a pre-flop all-in would get no action and that a significant pre-flop raise would scare out quite a few limpers who would have mediocre hands. I knew it was a bit of a risk in terms of walking into a straight or a flush, but I felt that slow playing it was the best strategy for this group.

My best case scenario was that a king would fall, and a big raise by me would be met with an all-in by someone holding the a king. Well, a king hit the table with a couple of undercards. There was no chance of a straight or flush. My only concern was someone hitting trips, and the odds of that were very small. So I bet big out of the flop with a nice healthy pot due to all the limpers I had figured on.

And, as an added bonus, a player went all-in with me! He turned over a king and a two offsuit, and I can just imagine how his face fell when I turned over the pocket aces. Now, his only chance was hitting a king for trips or a two for two pair. That’s five cards out of 45. His odds of winning were a dismal 4 to 1 (20%). Winning this would put me in the top ten and I would be in VERY good position to end in the money.

The turn card fell, and it was that two I mentioned earlier. With one turn of a card, he hit a 4 to 1 shot and I was now behind. Now my only chance was matching up with one of the other cards or hitting an aced. That was eight cards, which ironically gave me roughly the same odds as my opponent had (5 to 1). I didn’t hit it, however, and I was out of the tournament.

All in all, a pretty lousy way to prove to yourself you’re getting better!

Well, it was so late (around 4am) that I just had to finish the tournament sooner rather than later, so sitting with in about third place (out of 5) and a good stack, I saw myself with A8 offsuit. Normally, I would muck the hand, but I was just looking for an excuse to finish, so I went all-in. I hit the 8, but lost to an overpair, and my tournament was over. I finished in fifth place.

Frankly, I feel confident that I could have fought for first place, but it was not to be with the hour of the night. As it is, my goal was to finish in the top 8, and I achieved that, so I feel really good.

My performances continue to improve. My freeroll finishes are now consistently in the top 125, and with a bit more focus and patience I can see myself consistently finishing in the money.

I played really well and now find myself in third place out of 17 players remaining in the Absolute Poker 5K freeroll. It’s the third break, and I am guaranteed a payoff in AP points since the prize structure goes to 18.

My goal is to finish top 8, but I have shot at the top, being only a few chips behind the leader.

I was going to write a post about how not much is happening other than my improving play. I’m consistently finishing in the 75 to 125 range in freeroll tournaments while a week ago I would have been happy to hit 300. So here comes tonight, and at the second break of the Absolute Poker 5K points freeroll I’m sitting in fourth place with over 100K in chips.

Only 82 people are left and the tourney pays out points to the top 16. It’s getting late, so I’m not sure I can stay up to close out the tournament, but I’m going to try! I’d love to finish in the “money” and grab some points I could use on higher stakes tournaments.

Okay, I’m incrementally getting better at taking calculated risks that return big investments. The trouble is that I’m still making mistakes. Some are little mistakes that have big consequences, while others are just bone-headed moves that have disastrous consequences. Today’s Absolute Poker freeroll had a good example of a small mistake and a good example of small risk with big payoff. First the small mistake.

I’ll cut to the chase: I faced these hold cards.

Formerly, I would muck this hand. But I had a big stack, and the blinds were small enough that I was playing a little more loose. Here’s the flop:

Having a big stack and the flexibility it brings is nice! Here I am flopping a set. Very nice.

My only concern was the flush draw. Without thinking I put in a half pot raise. The exact moment I put it in, I was cursing myself. A good player would see the potential of nabbing my stack with a flush and would call a small raise. The upside was just too juicy. The person behind me called instantly, and the turn fell:

I can’t believe it. I simply forgot everything I had been studying the past two days and it immediately comes back to haunt me! I made a big bet as a feeler (he could have been bluffing!), which was mistake number two, and he instacalled. The next card was another spade, so even if he didn’t hit the flush on the turn, he definitely had it on the river. Ugh.

Now let’s go back to a good hand.

Tenth hand of the tournament. Binds are 25/50. I face a preflop raise holding this:

It was a decent raise, but not extravagant. With two high cards and a flush draw, I decided to call. The flop came:

Pre-flop raiser raised double the pot, which was significant, but I had a flush draw and a backdoor straight possibility, so there was no way I was folding with the potential of pulling in his whole stack. Here’s what fell:

No flush, but now I had four more outs for a gutshot straight with the higher card. My opponent raised again, but with the all the outs I now faced, I was fairly certain I would nab his stack if I hit the 9 or the flush. I was thinking that my opponent had something strong, perhaps pocket kings, but not enough to confidently go all-in. I totally felt the risk was worth it. The river fell:

I had the nuts unless my opponent was holding KQ, which I considered highly unlikely considering I had a Q. My opponent went all-in, which was my goal all along, and I quickly called. He turned over:

I’m not sure why he went all-in with a straight on the board. My best guess is that he was trying to bluff me off the pot, making it look like he held a Q or even KQ. Unfortunately, he was facing someone… with the Q!

If you can’t really begin to learn until you realize just how much you don’t know then I’m hitting that point with poker. I’ve memorized opening hole cards. I understand the concepts of pot odds and outs. I’ve mastered my emotions so that I have the discipline and patience to pick my spots, but after reading through Matthew Hilger’s Texas Holdem: Odds And Probabilities I feel like I’m still a rank amateur.

Looking over the concept of stack sizes, assessing effective implied pot odds, and the winning odds of things like backdoor straights and belly buster straights just adds a whole level of complexity that I didn’t even consider. I mentioned this in my “donk” post earlier, but it bears repeating: In no-limit, it sometimes makes sense to make plays that you normally wouldn’t.

This is going to be a real challenge for me, as it adds quite a bit of mathematical complexity. Imagine figuring out the odds of hitting a two gapped straight draw from the flop to the river with one overcard, while also assessing the implied odds of a stack going all-in including what the turn bet will be. Not easy.

One change for me is that I’m much more likely to play low pairs, especially against significant raises, as the odds of hitting a set, while low, can pay off huge in no-limit tourneys. In fact, this happened to me tonight, and while the result wasn’t what I hoped, the actual play was pitch perfect to my mind:

It’s early in an Absolute Poker Freeroll. I’m in late position with a bunch of typical loose freeroll players. Blinds are only $25/50 and the key players have early stacks in the $1500 to $2500 range. My stack sits at $1420. I’m dealt:

A loose player raises to $250. In the past I would fold 55 immediately. But it’s clear that I could easily win this guy’s whole stack if I hit a set and take him to the river. So even though the odds of me hitting a set are low with the pot size, the effective odds with me nabbing his whole stack (something like 25 to 1) are too good to pass up. I figure I’ll hit the flop, miss the set and fold. A player behind me also calls, and three of us go to the flop. The flop comes:

And just like that I hit my set. My next worry is to make sure it will hold. At this point I have two thoughts: Are there any traps for me and how can I extricate two full stacks with this?

I was relatively unconcerned about the flop. There are no flush dangers yet, and the only straight possibility is 34. While 34 is a possible holding I found it highly unlikely. Of course, there is always the possibility that he or the other person were holding 66 and have me beat with a higher set, but I found it more likely that I was facing something from AA to even JT from the maniac.

The answer to my second question came quickly: Loose player in early position went all-in. I pushed, and late position player also went all-in. Loose player showed:

Loose player went all in with top pair and mediocre kicker. His only hope is to hit the hail mary straight with an 89, 34, or 48 dropping. Possible, but a pretty big long shot. I, of course, showed my triple 5s, but then late player showed his hand:

Another favorable holding for me! Even if he hits a set I beat him. His only hope is drawing a 3 on the turn or river, which is around 4.5 to 1 against. I have a 70% chance of winning both stacks, and it happened because I called with this scenario entirely in mind! Unfortunately for me, here is what the turn and river delivered:

And late caller hits his hail mary straight on the river! I have to admit that it didn’t really bring me down. If I’m in that position 7 out of 10 times I’m walking away with two big stacks.

I need to do a lot more analysis and study of how various holdings can play out to the river with the effective implied odds, but my rudimentary knowledge has already improved my game, if not my results… yet.